Intervention Model for Analyzing the Impact of Terrorism to Tourism Industry

Problem statement: It is common in time series data with extreme change in its mean caused by an intervention which comes from external and/or internal factors. This extreme change in mean is known as regime change or structural change. Problems of external factor intervention such as the effect of the Arab oil embargo to consumption level of electricity in United States. The issue of interest here is on the impact of terrorist Bali’s bomb to tourism industry in Indonesia. Approach: A theoretical and empirical studies on the intervention model, particularly pulse function of intervention is carried out focusing on the differential statistics that can be used to determine the order of intervention model. A case study of the first Bali bomb that occurred on October 12th, 2002 is an intervention of external factor that has affected the occupancy level of five star hotels in Bali. Results: The results of this theoretical study were applied to construct a model procedure of intervention model. The empirical study showed that intervention model is used to describe and explain the quantity and the length of the first Bali bomb effect towards the occupancy level of five star hotels in Bali. It shows a decreasing trend in tourist arrival in Bali, Indonesia. Conclusion: This study was focused on the derivation of some effect shapes, i.e., temporary, gradually or permanent on the arrival of tourist into Bali. A new model building procedure with three main iterative steps for determining an intervention model was used for data with extreme change in mean. The results from this theoretical study will give an opportunity for further research related to time series model that contains regime change, caused by intervention of pulse function and/or step function.